Ted Cruz takes Iowa in what some are calling an upset, but
insiders say was perfectly called by the Cruz staff based on their solid ground
game and a successful campaign model tailored after Barack Obama’s 2008 run
(which took much of its framework from the George W Bush run in 2000).
While Iowa is hardly reflective of the nation at large,
clearly Cruz and his well-managed campaign picks up tons of momentum heading
into the New Hampshire primary, where polls show Donald Trump still holds a
commanding lead.
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders locked in a virtual
tie with Hillary Clinton after lagging by as much as 50 points a few months
ago.
Republicans showed up in record numbers, which was supposed
to help Trump, but instead turned out to benefit Cruz. Democrats didn’t pull
record numbers (Obama did that in 2008), but it was enough to pull Sanders even
with the establishment party favorite. While a win would have added to Sanders’
“rolling thunder” enthusiasm, one still has to wonder just how strong Clinton’s
campaign is once one scrapes away the high-profile surface support.
As has been noted in the press, Iowa may be a launching pad
for many campaigns, its population doesn’t reflect the nation as a whole, nor
does it in any way guarantee a presidential win. Only three non-incumbent
politicians won Iowa and went on the win the presidential election . . . Jimmy
Carter (who actually came in second to “undecided”) in 1976, George W. Bush in
2000 and Barack Obama in 2008.
While Iowa is pretty vanilla, with a population that is 5.6
percent Hispanic, 3.4 percent black and 2.2 percent Asian (the U.S. as a whole
is 17.4% Hispanic,
13.2% black and 5.4% Asian), the Cruz win will set the tone for the “extreme”
conservative wing of the GOP. Whether that will play to a more diversified
population remains to be seen. It hasn’t in the past. (LA Times)
Marco
Rubio’s third-place finish gives some hope to the GOP establishment, but his
flip-flops and dicey finances make him vulnerable to attacks both from members
of his own party as well as Democrats.
Just
how tough a game is politics? Remember that in 2008, Mike Huckabee took Iowa
with 34 percent of the Republican caucuses (last night he got just 1 percent
and ended his campaign) . . . Rick Santorum took first on the GOP side in 2008
(tied with Mitt Romney), but managed just 1 percent Monday . . . (Wiki)
I’m
not sure Cruz will close the gap on Trump in New Hampshire. Trump’s WWE-like campaign
(as David Brooks of The New York Times calls
it) has garnered a lot of support here, but will the rise of Cruz and Rubio
steal votes from him. Remember, too, that in New Hampshire, Independent (or
undeclared) voters can vote in either party primary.
It’s
New Hampshire, with the hot lights of massive media coverage and a Town
Hall-based campaign process that will push candidates forward into upcoming
primaries . . . and deliver the kill shot to other campaigns. Chris Christie
and John Kasich need strong showings here to have any chance of moving up the
GOP ladder.
It
will all become a bit clearer February 9.
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