Hillary Clinton, once seen as the anointed one, seemed a
shoo-in not only as the Democratic nominee, but a fairly easy walk down the
Yellow Brick Road to the White House. No longer. She and her campaign are in
trouble, seriously damaged by self-inflicted wounds over her computer server
and her emails.
While she’s tried to spin those two things into “not-so-bad”
and “I’m innocent” issues, thus far that hasn’t worked. Having her own private
server was a monumental error from the start. Never mind that it had been done
in the past, before rules changed prohibiting it. When those rules changed, she
should have switched to a government server and packed up the home office. She
didn’t . . . so now she’s paying the price. Her campaign is stalled over the
ongoing investigations and the drip, drip, drip that can kill any political
campaign’s momentum.
So Hillary’s coronation is looking a bit shaky. Now Vice
President Joe Biden may jump into the fray. With Bernie Sanders nipping away at
Clinton’s polling numbers, Biden could prove a game changer, but only if he can
raise the money, put together campaign staff and primary network. His coming
into the race would probably be the death knell for the campaigns of former
Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, and ex-Virginia
Sen Jim Webb. The money will dry up, and they haven’t managed to catch much
voter interest between the Hillary and Bernie shows.
Biden may have a bit going for him . . . including the fact
that people on both sides of the aisle have praised him for his straight talk,
honest and open connection with all types of voters and his sense of humor
(though sometime a bit off-color). So he has advantages over Clinton, but he
also has weakness, including two failed presidential runs, his sometimes creepy
touchy-feely too close for comfort photo ops, and his attachment to the Obama
administration. (Something that’s hard to avoid when you’re the vice president.)
Tactical issues aside (and the fact the he’s not in the race
. . . yet), that final point may be a tough one. If he enters, can he distance
himself enough from Obama to draw some of the Obama haters to him? Maybe . . .
but that’s a tough lot and there’s no indication, at least so far, that they’re
interested in anything on the Democratic side. They’d rather stick with the conservative
Republican flock. Of course do Republicans or Democrats really cross-vote much?
I think some do, depending on the issues (or frustrations) or overall appeal of
a candidates . . . and Latinos and women have been two groups that have
fluctuated between the two parties (percentagewise) in recent national
elections. The fight for both parties is in the middle and with younger voters.
If they aren’t drawn by a candidate, they won’t vote.
One has a feeling, though, that Latinos, given the hateful
Republican rhetoric, will flock to a Democrat.
The bigger concern is that young voters will just stay home.
If Democrats fail to garner support from young voters, that
could spell defeat . . . I can’t see Republicans pulling more Latino voters
than they did the last time around (27 percent of Latino voters voted for
Romney in 2012 . . . McCain got 31 percent in 2006, and George W. Bush got 44
percent of the Latino vote in 2004).
Poo-poo the importance of that if you will, but Latinos are
the country’s fastest growing minority and now comprise over 16 percent of the
population. Those are voters Republicans can’t afford to lose, but, despite
their own analysis of the 2012 election results that urged a better focus on
immigration and other Latino issues, Republicans have taken a decidedly
anti-Latino stance.
It seemed it might have been the Democrats to lose, with
Clinton looking nearly unbeatable a few months back, but that game has changed.
Trump has led the Republican charge, and pundits are starting to take him more
seriously than the sideshow they thought he was at first.
People are tired of the same old party lines . . . So Trump,
and to an extent Sanders are drawing big crowds and enthusiastic support. The
initial Clinton-Bush match-up looks pretty boring from here . . . Too
predictable, campaigns lacking much excitement and maybe just too mainstream.
But the Democrats have to figure it out. Either Clinton
climbs out of her email/server mess or the party tail spins after the primaries
. . . Those self-inflicted wounds may cost her the nation’s highest office. She
needs to transform herself into a less practiced, more spontaneous, more
relaxed and more “human” instead of rehearsed. I’m not sure she can do or be
those things. She’s been in this political game so long her character is pretty
well solidified. Say this about Bill, he’s relaxed, relates well to all types
of people, seems at ease in blue jeans and a polo shirt shaking hands with
people in a diner and equally at ease on a stage talking about global issues.
Whether you like him or not, he’s got that ease and wit about him. She does
not.
If we’re judging on “trust” issues, Hillary Clinton is in
trouble. Sanders and Biden win that by a long shot. The Democratic debates are
coming up, and we’ll be watching carefully . . . Clinton can still pull this
out . . . She remains the big gun on the Democratic side.
But we’ll see in the coming weeks whether she has fatally
wounded herself with bad, dumb and ego-centric decisions regarding something so
simple as a computer server.
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