Ups and downs . . . The end of fossil fuels, or just our usual short-term thinking?

Oil. Oil. Oil. Have we forgotten how valuable it is? Or are we merely accepting that it will never be as valuable as it once was?

Is this the end of the fossil fuel era?

Perhaps we’re at a tipping point. A point when we still use and depend on fossil fuels, but are moving ever closer to a place where we get our power from so-called clean sources, like solar and wind. It seems to me if we want to increase the use of solar and wind we need to make it ever more cost-effective for homeowners to cover their roofs with solar panels, have grey water systems, water storage and water collection systems, as well as small wind energy systems.

During the recent past hay days of oil and gas, investors boomed then busted even as the world seemed ever more on the edge of major crises in the Middle East and Ukraine and China Sea. But unlike days gone by, energy prices fell, driving virtually all speculators out of the markets and states like North Dakota, which banked heavily on its fracking surge, are left with empty real estate developments, rising unemployment (though still one of the lowest in the U.S.) and tons of busted dreams. Two other energy-heavy states, Louisiana and South Carolina also saw upticks in their unemployment over the past several months, even as most states saw their rates fall.

In the not too distant past, even a hint of global disruption would send oil prices higher and investors running to line their portfolios with gold as well. While gold prices have stayed pretty high (gold was about $350 an ounce in 2001, and is now just over $1,000 an ounce (down from a high of nearly $1,900 in 2011).

For history buffs, gold hit just over $2,000 in 1980.

Ups and downs . . .

A barrel of oil was $150 in 2008, just over $106 in 2013, under $40 earlier this summer and is about $45 a barrel now. Between the highs in 1980 of $115 and, say, 2008 and 20013, oil trended down to a low of $22 in 1998 before starting to rise gain.

Ups and downs.

Few of these things head up or down in a straight line, and today’s investors love playing short-term swings and not long-term holds.

So the energy economy doesn’t look so bright right now. Are we seeing a long-term trend, or are we a bit too focused on the now?

Clearly the game is changing with increased solar and wind use, though water shortages may turn out to be the nation’s biggest natural resource issue. But I’d be willing to bet a nickel that before my kids are close to middle age, they’ll see another major oil crisis, spiking prices and yet another push for more fuel-efficient cars, higher tax incentives for alternate energy construction and maybe even a few long lines at the gas station.

Ups and downs . . .