It could all be over for the Republicans tomorrow, as
primary voters head to the polls in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Illinois and
Missouri
A growing majority of Republicans are hoping there will be
yet another chance to “stop Trump,” but their time has almost run out as the
party that created him wrings its hands as he marches to the nomination.
Several things about Trump’s campaign are clear . . . The
first is that the party should have seen this coming months ago. They should
have seen this crisis in their ranks, the anger that Trump has been able to
fuel to the boiling point. The fear of people and countries they see as the
reasons for their anger and their job loss and their perception that nobody
cares about their plight except Donald Trump. He hears them clearly and has fed
each and every angry, fearful note possible . . . It’s all the fault of
Mexican, crappy politicians, Muslims and stupid incompetent politicians.
Trump supporters cheer their champion’s outspoken,
politically incorrect rhetoric. They cheer is “difference” from the usual
rubber-stamped politics they see as ruining America. They see his fire and soak
up his words like an old dry sponge sitting inside the edge of a sink. They
love the fact that protesters “attacked” a Trump rally. They embrace his staged
anger and cheer his “punch him in the face” screeches, because that’s what they
want to do. In Trump, they receive the candy they so desperately didn’t get
from the Great Satan of Obama, the man they see as “ruining” America.
What rabid Trump supporters see, however, is vastly
different than what others see. Others see an ego manic fueling violence, hate
and divisiveness. They see a candidate who has appealed to the worst of human
nature. They see someone who has yet to outline any major policy positions,
instead relying on short bursts of, “We’ll make America great again” or “Mexico
will pay for the wall.” Ridiculous even on the face of it.
But the simple fact is that Trump’s supporters just don’t
care.
Now, the protests, some of which turned violent, will
continue, as Trump fans the flames more and more, simply because any protests
harden his supporters even more. This not a man, observers say, who has shown
even a sliver of presidential stature. So growing protests at what Trump calls
his “shows” may embolden his supporters, they are causing earthquakes within
the Republican Party.
Ted Cruz, who many see as an even more “dangerous” candidate
than Trump, runs in second place, his far-right views alienating voters on a
national level, but proving popular among a fairly wide swath of Republican primary
voters.
Rubio? If he doesn’t take Florida,
his home state, he’s done, his campaign turning into not much more than a large
flash in the pan that never gained the traction it needed to excite voters and push
through Trump’s circus.
Kasich must take his home state of
Ohio or he’s done.
Though any predictions are probably
at the least a dicey endeavor, there seems to be no reason to think that Trump
can unify the party, let alone the nation. If he’s the nominee each and every
word he has uttered is ammo for his opponent. While his primary opponents haven’t
been able to dent the Trump tank, I’m not so sure that will be the case when we’re
faced with the prospect of a Trump White House. Thus not only do republicans
face the prospect of losing the presidential election, but also of losing its
Senate majority, and possibly the House as well. At the least, the party will
be seriously wounded.
If Trump doesn’t evolve into a
person willing to take responsibility for his words (Can you imagine the outcry
if Obama has said, “Punch him in the face” . . . ?) and threats to build a
Mexico-financed walls, ban Muslims from entering the country, deport all
illegal immigrants, eliminate a free press and a warped sense of first
amendment rights that Trump feels only applies to him and not those who might
disagree with him. (Please note that if you’re a Muslim already here . . . and
a citizen who happens to be a Muslim . . . Trump wants to take away all your
Constitutional rights. That, my friends is a war on religion.)
So here we are. It’s a process, and
Trump has proved time and time again that a carnival barker can capture a large
crowd with his barking if he’s barking what they want to hear. That’s the way
it is, and we’ll see what happens not only tomorrow, but to the Republican
convention.
If Trump fails to get the delegates
needed for the nomination, there will be a floor fight, from which Trump will
probably not emerge the winner. It’s a numbers game . . . and Trump’s opponents
are playing prevent defense, hoping they can go into the convention with some delegates
and come out as the nominee after a political cage fight. It’ll be an uphill
battle from there . . .
If Trump is currently polling at 40 percent, remember that
is 40 percent of a party that now claims about one-third of registered voters.
That’s 40 percent of one-third. That’s not close to a majority, and despite
Clinton’s high negatives, I’m not convinced that a Republican candidate can
beat her, let alone Sanders, in a national contest. Part of the ammo for Democrats
will be Trump’s words throughout the primary campaign as evidence of where
Republicans stand on some issues.
We march on.
